This week (12.11-15, the same below), the main theme of the rare earth market is the coldness. The brief inquiry and procurement have stabilized prices, and transactions at low prices have cooled down. A slight rational rebound has led to prices stabilizing and hovering this week. From the current concession range, it seems that a temporary stable platform has emerged. After the industry's expected stability, whether it is a rebound or continued decline that the range may not be too large.
Despite the weak performance of major varieties at the beginning of the week, the substantial shipment quotations were not high. Rare earth varieties represented by praseodymium neodymium products showed a trend of low procurement and yield during the replenishment and short selling process, leading to lower prices and slightly lower transaction prices. In the bearish gap, the inquiry behavior of metal companies gave the market some confidence. Subsequently, the low position in the week began to tighten, and mainstream rare earth product prices slightly rebounded.
As of December 15th, some rare earth oxide products are priced at 447000 to 45000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide; 45000-46000 yuan/ton of neodymium oxide; 0.3-0.35 million yuan/ton of lanthanum oxide; Cerium oxide costs 0.55-0.65 million yuan/ton; The market price of dysprosium oxide is 2.63-2.64 million yuan/ton, and the acceptance price is relatively high; The market price of terbium oxide is 7.8 to 8 million yuan/ton, with a slightly higher acceptance price; Gadolinium oxide costs 205000 to 208000 yuan/ton, while holmium oxide costs 465000 to 475000 yuan/ton; Erbium oxide costs 265000 to 27000 yuan/ton.
From the later part of the week, the oxide market remained stable overall, with mainstream trading levels relatively close to quotes. Separation plants still have expectations of a decline due to sufficient raw materials, although the current discount has reached its limit, factories have also hesitated slightly in their price reduction efforts, and trading companies are more cautious in accepting futures orders.
As of December 15th, some rare earth metal quotations are: metal praseodymium neodymium 547000 to 553000 yuan/ton; Neodymium Metal: 555-560000 yuan/ton; Metal cerium costs 25000 to 25500 yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron 2.53-2.58 million yuan/ton; Metal terbium 970-9.8 million yuan/ton; 195000 to 200000 yuan/ton of gadolinium iron; Holmium iron costs 480000 to 490000 yuan/ton.
Sales in the metal market have been hindered as usual, and price wars have reached the cost line or even below. The reduction in prices by metal factories is not significant, but although it has reached the bottom, there is still not much demand for procurement and stocking orders downstream. Although the trend is stable, it is difficult to maintain.
This week, there has been a concentrated market trend in the procurement of metals and magnetic materials. Unlike previous lows, the procurement process this week has seen a convergence in low-priced shipments, indicating a strong willingness to build stability. And downstream continued to focus on their own orders, restraining some essential purchases. Although there was a peak procurement period this week, it was relatively short, and the situation of multiple inquiries for one order also caused a mismatch in actual transaction volume.
Subsequent judgment shows that the downward trend from demand has once again reached a temporary cost support equilibrium point. As the end of the year approaches, the purchasing and selling efforts of various enterprises may only stabilize the current state. The sentiment of upstream and downstream enterprises is wait-and-see, and some industry insiders have cautious expectations for "bottoming out". We predicts that in the absence of obvious positive conditions, maintaining the trend may be difficult, and the probability of downward volatility still exists.
笔记
Post time: Dec-19-2023