This week (10.23-10.27, the same below), the expected rebound has not yet arrived, and the market is accelerating its decline. The market lacks protection, and demand alone is difficult to drive. As upstream and trading companies compete to ship, and downstream orders shrink and restrain, the mainstream bearish sentiment affects the trend of rare earths, just like the autumn breeze, Xiaoxiao sends Yan Qun away~~
The market has been very weak this week, from a slow decline at the beginning of the week to a sharp decline in the middle of the week. Low price trading information is frequently leaked, adding pessimism to the already sensitive praseodymium neodymium. The relatively cold trading volume, the constantly shifting trading center, based on the general consensus of looking weak, the backlog of oxide inventory, and the increase in sales of ore and waste materials are all challenges that factories need to consider. Although some metal factories have been trying to stabilize prices, But it also has to follow the market price.
Heavy rare earths have also been affected by overall weakness, with terbium products experiencing the fastest decline compared to dysprosium. Due to cold demand and a lack of protection, the proportion of shipments in the bulk market has increased, and the profit margin is relatively large. In the short term, when there is no hope, flexible turnover of varieties has accelerated the decline in transaction prices. Of course, in the weakening market, a single variety is also difficult to compete with.
This week, it is worth paying attention to cerium products. Due to the increase in production of cerium iron boron, the demand for metallic cerium has surged. However, the separation plant has recently traded more in the form of futures, resulting in a slightly tight spot circulation. The quotation for cerium oxide has been continuously raised, and the transaction prices have been chaotic.
As of October 27th, some rare earth products have quoted prices of 45-4700 yuan/ton for cerium oxide and 2400-2500 yuan/ton for metallic cerium; Praseodymium neodymium oxide is 50800-512000 yuan/ton, and metal praseodymium neodymium is 625-63000 yuan/ton; Neodymium oxide is 512-517000 yuan/ton, and metallic neodymium is 635-64000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide is 2.65-2.67 million yuan/ton, dysprosium iron is 2.58-2.6 million yuan/ton; 8.15-8.2 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide, 10.2-10.3 million yuan/ton of metallic terbium; Gadolinium oxide is 268-273000 yuan/ton, gadolinium iron is 265000 yuan/ton; Holmium oxide costs 580000 to 590000 yuan/ton. The active trading of metal and oxide in mid week led to extremely low prices flooding the market, which remained stable in the later part of the week. The overall market was in a wait-and-see and stalemate, with prices stabilizing and actual transactions yielding profits.
Despite the continuous decline in rare earth transaction prices this week, compared to last week, praseodymium neodymium have dropped by 1.4 percentage points. At the same time, the industry's mentality is also more sensitive: on the one hand, there are many sources of waste and raw ore; On the other hand, the order situation for downstream magnetic materials is not ideal. Due to the slow downward adjustment of metal prices compared to oxide prices, it is difficult to achieve synchronous correspondence. Therefore, trading companies prefer to compromise shipping between the theoretical cost of metals and the actual transaction price.
This week's regular meeting of the State Council made it clear that the finance will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bond in the fourth quarter, all of which will be transferred to local governments. Although the investment direction is still mainly infrastructure and post disaster reconstruction, positive optimism has guaranteed the growth rate of China's GDP growth of 5.2% in the whole year, and it can also be sure that the subsequent central bank reserve ratio reduction may be on the way, but it has little impact on non-ferrous and black commodities in specific.
Some industries have several opinions on the future market:
1. As the end of the month approaches, the replenishment of raw materials can wait longer, so it is difficult for prices to improve.
2. As the end of the year approaches, the operations of large enterprises are also a factor affecting market prices, with a high probability of maintaining stability at the very least.
3. Unlike other non-ferrous metals, rare earths are greatly affected by policies. Under the joint influence of large enterprises and the market, although there may be a possibility of market adjustment returning to low levels for a period of time, other aspects of promotion also have to be paid attention to.
Post time: Oct-30-2023