Pamene mikangano pakati pa Ukraine ndi Russia ikupitirira, mtengo wa zitsulo zosawerengeka udzakwera.

English: Abizer Shaikhmahmud, Future Market Insights

Pomwe vuto lazinthu zogulitsira zomwe zidabwera chifukwa cha mliri wa COVID-19 silinachire, mayiko akunja ayambitsa nkhondo yaku Russia-Ukraine. Pankhani ya kukwera kwamitengo ngati vuto lalikulu, kutha kumeneku kutha kupitilira mitengo yamafuta, kuphatikiza minda yamakampani monga fetereza, chakudya ndi zitsulo zamtengo wapatali.

Kuchokera ku golidi kupita ku palladium, makampani osowa zitsulo padziko lonse lapansi komanso padziko lapansi amatha kukumana ndi nyengo yoipa. Russia ikhoza kukumana ndi mavuto akulu kuti ikwaniritse 45% yapadziko lonse lapansi ya palladium, chifukwa makampaniwa ali kale m'mavuto ndipo kufunikira kumaposa zomwe zilipo. Kuphatikiza apo, kuyambira mkanganowu, zoletsa zoyendetsa ndege zakulitsa zovuta za opanga palladium. Padziko lonse lapansi, Palladium ikugwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri kupanga zosinthira zamagalimoto kuti zichepetse mpweya woipa wamafuta kapena dizilo.

Russia ndi Ukraine ndi mayiko osowa kwambiri padziko lapansi, omwe ali ndi gawo lalikulu pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi. Malinga ndi Future Market Insights yotsimikiziridwa ndi esomar, pofika chaka cha 2031, kuchuluka kwapachaka kwa msika wapadziko lonse wazitsulo padziko lonse lapansi kudzakhala 6%, ndipo mayiko onsewa atha kukhala paudindo wofunikira. Komabe, malinga ndi mmene zinthu zilili panopa, zimene tafotokozazi zikhoza kusintha kwambiri. M'nkhaniyi, tikambirana mozama za zomwe zikuyembekezeka chifukwa chakufa kwachumaku pamakampani akuluakulu omwe zitsulo zosapezeka padziko lapansi zimayikidwa, komanso malingaliro okhudza momwe zimakhudzira mapulojekiti akuluakulu komanso kusinthasintha kwamitengo.

Mavuto mumakampani aukadaulo/zaukadaulo wazidziwitso atha kuwononga zofuna za United States ndi Europe.

Ukraine, monga likulu la uinjiniya ndi ukadaulo wa IT, imadziwika kuti ndi dera lomwe lili ndi ntchito zopindulitsa zakunja ndi zakunja kwa chipani chachitatu. Chifukwa chake, kuwukira kwa Russia kwa anzawo omwe kale anali Soviet Union kudzakhudzanso zofuna za maphwando ambiri - makamaka United States ndi Europe.

Kusokonezedwa kwa ntchito zapadziko lonse lapansi kungakhudze zochitika zazikulu zitatu: mabizinesi mwachindunji amatulutsa njira zogwirira ntchito kwa opereka chithandizo ku Ukraine; Kupereka ntchito kumakampani akumayiko monga India, omwe amawonjezera luso lawo potumiza zinthu zochokera ku Ukraine, ndi mabizinesi omwe ali ndi malo ochitira bizinesi padziko lonse lapansi opangidwa ndi ogwira ntchito kudera lankhondo.

Zinthu zosawerengeka zapadziko lapansi zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pazigawo zazikulu zamagetsi monga mafoni anzeru, makamera a digito, ma hard disks apakompyuta, nyali za fulorosenti ndi nyali za LED, zowunikira makompyuta, ma TV a flat-panel ndi mawonedwe apakompyuta, zomwe zimagogomezeranso kufunikira kwa zinthu zosowa zapadziko lapansi.

Nkhondoyi yadzetsa kusatsimikizika kofala komanso nkhawa zazikulu osati pakuwonetsetsa maluso okha, komanso kupanga zida zopangira ukadaulo wazidziwitso (IT) ndi njira zolumikizirana. Mwachitsanzo, gawo logawanika la Ukraine ku Donbass lili ndi zinthu zambiri zachilengedwe, zofunika kwambiri zomwe ndi lithiamu.Lithium migodi imagawidwa makamaka ku Kruta Balka wa Zaporizhzhia boma, Shevchenkivse migodi dera Dontesk ndi polokhivsk migodi dera Dobra dera Kirovohrad. Pakalipano, ntchito zamigodi m'maderawa zayima, zomwe zingayambitse kusinthasintha kwakukulu kwamitengo yazitsulo zapadziko lapansi m'derali.

Kuchulukirachulukira kwa ndalama zachitetezo chapadziko lonse lapansi kwapangitsa kuti mitengo yazitsulo zosowa padziko lapansi zichuluke.

Poganizira kuchuluka kwa kusatsimikizika komwe kwachitika chifukwa cha nkhondoyi, mayiko padziko lonse lapansi akuyesetsa kulimbikitsa mphamvu zawo zachitetezo ndi usilikali, makamaka m'madera omwe ali m'dera la Russia. Mwachitsanzo, mu February 2022, Germany idalengeza kuti ipereka ma euro 100 biliyoni (US $ 113 biliyoni) kuti ikhazikitse thumba lapadera lankhondo kuti lisunge ndalama zake zodzitetezera kupitilira 2% ya GDP.

Zomwe zikuchitikazi zidzakhala ndi chiyambukiro chachikulu pakupanga kwapadziko lapansi kosowa komanso chiyembekezo chamitengo. Zomwe zili pamwambazi zikulimbikitsanso kudzipereka kwa dzikolo kuti likhalebe ndi chitetezo champhamvu cha dziko, ndikukwaniritsa zochitika zingapo zomwe zidachitika m'mbuyomu, kuphatikizapo mgwirizano womwe unagwirizana ndi Northern Minerals, kampani yopanga zitsulo zapamwamba kwambiri ku Australia, mu 2019 kuti igwiritse ntchito zitsulo zosawerengeka monga dziko lapansi. neodymium ndi praseodymium.

Pakadali pano, United States ndiyokonzeka kuteteza gawo lake la NATO ku ziwawa zaku Russia. Ngakhale silingatumize asitikali kudera la Russia, boma lidalengeza kuti lidaganiza zoteteza inchi iliyonse komwe magulu achitetezo akuyenera kutumizidwa. Choncho, kugawidwa kwa bajeti ya chitetezo kungawonjezeke, zomwe zidzasintha kwambiri chiyembekezo chamtengo wapatali cha zipangizo zapadziko lapansi.

Zokhudza msika wapadziko lonse wa semiconductor zitha kukhala zoyipa kwambiri?

Bizinesi yapadziko lonse lapansi ya semiconductor, yomwe ikuyembekezeka kusintha pakati pa 2022, ikumana ndi zovuta zazikulu chifukwa chakulimbana pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine. Monga wothandizira wamkulu wa zinthu zofunika pakupanga semiconductor, mpikisano wodziwikiratu uwu ukhoza kubweretsa zoletsa kupanga ndi kuchepa kwa zinthu, komanso kukwera kwamitengo.

Chifukwa tchipisi ta semiconductor amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pazinthu zosiyanasiyana zamagetsi zamagetsi, sizodabwitsa kuti ngakhale kukwera pang'ono kwa mikangano kumabweretsa chisokonezo. Malinga ndi lipoti lamtsogolo lowonera msika, pofika chaka cha 2030, msika wapadziko lonse wa semiconductor chip uwonetsa kuchuluka kwapachaka kwa 5.6%. Makina onse ogulitsa semiconductor amakhala ndi chilengedwe chovuta, Phatikizani opanga ochokera kumadera osiyanasiyana omwe amapereka zida zosiyanasiyana, zida, ukadaulo wopanga ndi mayankho amapaketi. Kuphatikiza apo, imaphatikizaponso ogulitsa ndi opanga zamagetsi zamagetsi. Ngakhale kabowo kakang'ono mu unyolo wonse kumatulutsa thovu, lomwe lingakhudze aliyense wokhudzidwa.

Ngati nkhondo ikuipiraipira, pakhoza kukhala kukwera kwamitengo kwakukulu mumakampani a semiconductor padziko lonse lapansi. Mabizinesi ayamba kuteteza zofuna zawo ndikusunga tchipisi tambirimbiri ta semiconductor. Pamapeto pake, izi zidzapangitsa kuti pakhale kuchepa kwazinthu. Koma chinthu chimodzi choyenera kutsimikizira ndichakuti vutoli litha kuchepetsedwa. Pakukula kwa msika wonse komanso kukhazikika kwamitengo yamakampani a semiconductor, Ndi nkhani yabwino.

Makampani opanga magalimoto padziko lonse lapansi atha kukumana ndi kukana kwakukulu.

Makampani opanga magalimoto padziko lonse lapansi atha kumva kuti ndizovuta kwambiri pankhondoyi, makamaka ku Europe. Padziko lonse lapansi, opanga akuyang'ana kwambiri kuti adziwe kukula kwa nkhondo yapadziko lonse yapadziko lonse lapansi. Zitsulo zapadziko lapansi zosawerengeka monga neodymium, praseodymium ndi dysprosium nthawi zambiri zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati maginito okhazikika popanga ma motors opepuka, ophatikizika komanso ogwira mtima, omwe angayambitse kusakwanira.

Malinga ndi kusanthula, msika wamagalimoto ku Europe uvutike kwambiri chifukwa cha kusokonezeka kwa magalimoto ku Ukraine ndi Russia. Kuyambira kumapeto kwa February 2022, makampani angapo amagalimoto padziko lonse lapansi asiya kutumiza maoda kuchokera kwa ogulitsa akumaloko kupita kwa anzawo aku Russia. Kuphatikiza apo, ena opanga magalimoto akupondereza ntchito zopanga kuti athetse kukhwimitsa uku.

Pa february 28, 2022, Volkswagen, wopanga magalimoto aku Germany, adalengeza kuti aganiza zosiya kupanga m'mafakitale awiri amagetsi amagetsi kwa sabata yathunthu chifukwa kuwukirako kudasokoneza kutumiza zida zosinthira. Wopanga magalimoto aganiza zosiya kupanga mu fakitale ya Zvico ndi fakitale ya Dresden. Pakati pa zigawo zina, kutumiza kwa zingwe kwasokonezedwa kwambiri. Kuphatikiza apo, Kupezeka kwazitsulo zofunika kwambiri zapadziko lapansi kuphatikiza neodymium ndi dysprosium kungakhudzidwenso. 80% ya magalimoto amagetsi amagwiritsa ntchito zitsulo ziwirizi kupanga maginito okhazikika.

Nkhondo ku Ukraine zingakhudzenso kwambiri kupanga padziko lonse mabatire galimoto magetsi, chifukwa Ukraine ndi wachitatu waukulu sewero la faifi tambala ndi zotayidwa mu dziko, ndi zinthu ziwiri zamtengo wapatali zimenezi ndi zofunika kupanga mabatire ndi mbali galimoto magetsi. Kuphatikiza apo, neon yopangidwa ku Ukraine imakhala pafupifupi 70% ya neon yomwe imafunikira tchipisi tapadziko lonse lapansi ndi zida zina, zomwe zasowa kale. utali watsopano wodabwitsa. Chiwerengerochi chikhoza kukhala chokwera chaka chino.

Kodi vutoli lidzakhudza malonda a golide?

Kusagwirizana kwandale pakati pa Ukraine ndi Russia kwadzetsa nkhawa komanso nkhawa m'mafakitale akuluakulu. Komabe, zikafika pakukhudzidwa kwa mtengo wa golidi, zinthu zimakhala zosiyana. Russia ndi yachitatu pakupanga golide padziko lonse lapansi, yomwe imatulutsa matani opitilira 330 pachaka.

Lipotilo likuwonetsa kuti kuyambira sabata yatha ya February 2022, pomwe osunga ndalama akufuna kusinthira ndalama zawo pazinthu zotetezedwa, mtengo wa golide wakwera kwambiri. Akuti mtengo wa golide womwewo udakwera 0.3% mpaka 1912.40 US dollars pa ounce, pomwe mtengo wagolide waku US ukuyembekezeka kukwera 0.2% mpaka 1913.20 US dollars per ounce. Izi zikuwonetsa kuti osunga ndalama ali ndi chiyembekezo chokhudza momwe chitsulo chamtengo wapatalichi chidzagwirira ntchito panthawi yamavuto.

Tinganene kuti chofunika kwambiri mapeto ntchito golide ndi kupanga zinthu zamagetsi. Ndiwoyendetsa bwino omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito polumikizira, zolumikizirana, zosinthira, zolumikizira, mawaya olumikizira ndi zolumikizira. Ponena za zotsatira zenizeni za vutoli, sizikudziwika ngati padzakhala zotsatira za nthawi yaitali. Koma pamene osunga ndalama akufuna kusintha ndalama zawo ku mbali yosalowerera ndale, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti padzakhala mikangano yaifupi, makamaka pakati pa magulu omenyana.

Poona kusakhazikika kwa mkangano womwe ulipo, n'kovuta kuneneratu momwe makampani azitsulo akusowa padziko lapansi angayendere. Potengera zomwe zikuchitika masiku ano, zikuwoneka kuti chuma cha msika wapadziko lonse lapansi chikuyenda bwino kwanthawi yayitali popanga zitsulo zamtengo wapatali ndi zitsulo zosowa padziko lapansi, ndipo maunyolo ofunikira ndi mphamvu zidzasokonezedwa posachedwa.

Dziko lafika pa nthawi yovuta kwambiri. Mliri wa coronavirus (Covid-19) utangotha ​​mu 2019, pomwe zinthu zidangoyamba kukhazikika, atsogoleri andale adatenga mwayiwo kuti ayambitsenso kulumikizana ndi ndale zamphamvu. Kuti adziteteze ku masewera amagetsiwa, opanga amachita zonse zomwe angathe kuti ateteze njira zomwe zilipo ndikusiya kupanga kulikonse kumene kuli kofunikira.Kapena kudula mapangano ogawa ndi magulu omenyana.

Panthawi imodzimodziyo, openda amayembekezera kuwala kwa chiyembekezo. Ngakhale zoletsa zochokera ku Russia ndi Ukraine zitha kukhalapo, padakali dera lolimba lomwe opanga akufuna kulowera ku China. Poganizira za kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwakukulu kwa zitsulo zamtengo wapatali ndi zipangizo m’dziko lalikululi la kum’maŵa kwa Asia, ziletso zimene anthu amazimvetsetsa zikhoza kuimitsidwa.Opanga zinthu ku Ulaya akhoza kusainanso mapangano opangira ndi kugawa. Zonse zimadalira momwe atsogoleri a mayiko awiriwa amachitira nkhondoyi.

Ab Shaikhmahmud ndi mlembi komanso mkonzi wa Future Market Insights, kafukufuku wamsika komanso upangiri wamakampani ofufuza zamsika wotsimikiziridwa ndi esomar.