Sezvo kunetsana pakati peUkraine neRussia kuri kuenderera mberi, mutengo wesimbi isingawanzo simbi uchakwira.

Chirungu: Abhizer Shaikhmahmud, Future Market Insights

Nepo dambudziko rekutengesa rakakonzerwa nedenda reCCIDID-19 risati rapora, nharaunda dzepasi rose dzakapinza muhondo yeRussia-Ukrainian. Panyaya yekukwira kwemitengo sechinhu chiri kunetsa zvikuru, dambudziko iri rinogona kuwedzera kudarika mitengo yepeturu, kusanganisira maindasitiri akaita sefetereza, chikafu nesimbi dzinokosha.

Kubva pagoridhe kusvika palladium, iyo isingawanzo pasi simbi indasitiri munyika mbiri uye kunyangwe pasirese inogona kusangana nemamiriro ekunze akaipa. Russia inogona kutarisana nedzvinyiriro huru yekusangana ne45% yepasi rose palladium, nekuti iyo indasitiri yatova mudambudziko uye kudiwa kunodarika kupihwa. Pamusoro pezvo, kubva pakanetsana, zvirambidzo zvekufambisa nendege zvakawedzera kuomesera kwevagadziri vepalladium. Pasi rose, Palladium iri kuwedzera kushandiswa kugadzira emotokari catalytic converters kuderedza zvinokuvadza zvinobuda kubva kuoiri kana dhiziri injini.

Russia neUkraine idzo mbiri dzakakosha nyika dzepasi, dzichitora chikamu chikuru mumusika wepasi rose. Zvinoenderana neFuture Market Insights yakasimbiswa neesomar, panosvika 2031, huwandu hwepagore hwekukura kwemusika wepasi rose wesimbi musika uchave 6%, uye nyika mbiri idzi dzinogona kutora chinzvimbo chakakosha. Zvisinei, maererano nemamiriro ezvinhu aripo, fungidziro iri pamusoro inogona kuchinja zvikuru. Muchinyorwa chino, Tichakurukura zvakadzama mabatiro anotarisirwa kuitika kweiyi dhizaini pamaindasitiri akakosha epasi panoiswa simbi isingawanzo shandiswa, pamwe nemafungiro ezvinotarisirwa kuita mapurojekiti akakosha uye kushanduka kwemitengo.

Matambudziko muinjiniya/ruzivo tekinoroji indasitiri anogona kukanganisa zvido zveUnited States neEurope.

Ukraine, senzvimbo huru yeinjiniya uye tekinoroji yeIT, inoonekwa senzvimbo ine mari inobhadhara yekumahombekombe uye yekunze yechitatu-bato masevhisi. Naizvozvo, kupinda kweRussia kwevadyidzani veyaichimbova Soviet Union kuchakanganisa zvido zvemapato mazhinji-kunyanya United States neEurope.

Kuvhiringidzwa kwemabasa epasi rose kunogona kukanganisa zviitiko zvitatu zvikuru: mabhizinesi zvakananga kunze kwemaitiro ebasa kune vanopa masevhisi muUkraine yose; Kuburitsa basa kumakambani ari munyika dzakaita seIndia, ayo anowedzera kugona kwavo nekuendesa zviwanikwa kubva kuUkraine, uye mabhizinesi ane epasi rose bhizinesi sevhisi nzvimbo inoumbwa nevashandi venzvimbo yehondo.

Zvinhu zvisingawanzoitiki zvepasi zvinoshandiswa zvakanyanya muzvikamu zvakakosha zvemagetsi senge mafoni akangwara, makamera edhijitari, madhisiki emakombuta, mwenje wefluorescent uye mwenje we LED, macomputer monitors, flat-panel terevhizheni uye emagetsi kuratidzwa, izvo zvinowedzera kusimbisa kukosha kwezvisingawanzo zvinhu zvepasi.

Hondo iyi yakakonzera kusava nechokwadi kwakapararira uye kunetseka kwakanyanya kwete mukuvimbisa matarenda chete, asiwo mukugadzira zvigadzirwa zvehunyanzvi hweruzivo (IT) uye zvivakwa zvekutaurirana. Semuenzaniso, nharaunda yeUkraine yakakamurwa muDonbass ine hupfumi hwezvinhu zvakasikwa, iyo inonyanya kukosha iyo lithium.Lithium migodhi inonyanya kugoverwa muKruta Balka yeZaporizhzhia state, Shevchenkivse nzvimbo yemigodhi yeDontesk uye polokhivsk nzvimbo yemigodhi yeDobra nzvimbo yeKirovohrad. Parizvino, mabasa emigodhi munzvimbo idzi akamira, izvo zvinogona kutungamirira kukuchinja kukuru kwemitengo isingawanzoitiki yesimbi munzvimbo ino.

Kuwedzera kwekushandisa mari yekudzivirira pasi rose kwakonzera kuwedzera kwemitengo isingawanzo simbi yepasi.

Nekuda kwehupamhi hwekusava nechokwadi kwakakonzerwa nehondo, nyika pasi rese dziri kuita nhamburiko dzekusimbisa dziviriro yenyika uye kugona kwemauto, kunyanya munzvimbo dziri mukati mechikamu cheRussia. Semuyenzaniso, muna Kukadzi 2022, Germany yakazivisa kuti yaizogovera zana remabhiriyoni emaeuro (US$113 bhiriyoni) kumisa homwe yemauto ehondo kuti ichengetedze mari yekudzivirira iri pamusoro pe2% yeGDP.

Zviitiko izvi zvichave nemhedzisiro yakakura pane isingawanzo kugadzirwa kwepasi uye tarisiro yemitengo. Matanho ari pamusoro apa anowedzera kusimbisa kuzvipira kwenyika kuchengetedza simba redziviriro yenyika, uye kutsigira zviitiko zvakakosha zvakapfuura, kusanganisira chibvumirano chakaitwa neNorthern Minerals, mugadziri wesimbi wepamusoro weAustralia, muna 2019 kushandisa simbi isingawanzo simbi senge. neodymium uye praseodymium.

Zvichakadaro, United States yakagadzirira kuchengetedza nharaunda yayo yeNATO kubva kuRussia yakavhurika hutsinye. Kunyangwe zvisingaendese mauto munzvimbo yeRussia, hurumende yakazivisa kuti yafunga kudzivirira masendimita ese enzvimbo panoda kuendeswa mauto ekudzivirira. Nokudaro, kugoverwa kwebhajheji yezvidziviriro kunogona kuwedzera, iyo ichavandudza zvikuru tarisiro yemutengo wezvinhu zvisingawanzoitiki zvepasi.Yakaiswa mu sonar, magirazi ekuona usiku, laser rangefinder, kutaurirana uye hutungamiri hurongwa uye mamwe maitiro.

Mhedzisiro paindasitiri yepasi rose semiconductor inogona kutonyanya kuipa?

Indasitiri yepasi rose semiconductor, inotarisirwa kutendeuka pakati pa2022, ichasangana nematambudziko makuru nekuda kwekunetsana pakati peRussia neUkraine. Semupi akakosha wezvinhu zvinodiwa pakugadzira semiconductor, iyi makwikwi ari pachena anogona kutungamira kumiganhu yekugadzira uye kushomeka kwekupa, pamwe nekuwedzera kwemitengo.

Nekuti semiconductor machipisi anoshandiswa zvakanyanya mumhando dzakasiyana dzemagetsi zvigadzirwa, hazvishamise kuti kunyangwe kukwira kushoma kwemakakatanwa kuchaunza nyonganiso yese yekugovera. Zvinoenderana neremangwana rekutarisa musika mushumo, panosvika 2030, iyo yepasi rose semiconductor chip indasitiri icharatidza huwandu hwepagore hwekukura kwe5.6%. Iyo yese semiconductor yekugovera cheni ine yakaoma ecosystem, Inosanganisira vagadziri vanobva kumatunhu akasiyana vanopa akasiyana siyana zvigadzirwa, zvishandiso, tekinoroji yekugadzira uye yekurongedza mhinduro. Pamusoro pezvo, inosanganisirawo vanogovera uye vagadziri vemagetsi evatengi. Kunyangwe diki diki mucheni yese inoburitsa furo, iro richabata munhu wese ane chekuita.

Kana hondo ikawedzera, panogona kunge paine inflation yakakomba muindasitiri yepasi rose semiconductor. Mabhizinesi anotanga kuchengetedza zvido zvavo uye kuhodha huwandu hukuru hwema semiconductor machipisi. Pakupedzisira, izvi zvinozokonzera kushomeka kwehuwandu hwezvinhu. Asi chimwe chinhu chakakodzera kusimbiswa ndechekuti dambudziko rinogona kupedzisira raderedzwa. Pakukura kwemusika uye kugadzikana kwemutengo weiyo semiconductor indasitiri, Inhau dzakanaka.

Indasitiri yemotokari yemagetsi yepasi rose inogona kutarisana nekupikiswa kwakanyanya.

Indasitiri yemotokari yepasi rose inogona kunzwa yakanyanya kukosha kukanganisa uku, kunyanya muEurope. Pasi rose, vagadziri vari kutarisisa pakuona chiyero chehondo iyi yepasi rose yekugovera. Kashoma pasi simbi senge neodymium, praseodymium uye dysprosium anowanzo shandiswa semagineti echigarire kugadzira mwenje, compact uye inoshanda traction mota, izvo zvinogona kutungamira mukusakwana kuwanikwa.

Zvinoenderana nekuongorora, indasitiri yemotokari yeEurope ichatambura zvakanyanya nekuda kwekukanganiswa kwekupihwa kwemotokari muUkraine neRussia. Kubva mukupera kwaKukadzi 2022, makambani emotokari akati wandei akamira kutumira maodha kubva kune vatengesi venzvimbo kuenda kune vekuRussia vadyidzani. Pamusoro pezvo, vamwe vagadziri vemotokari vari kudzvanyirira zviitiko zvekugadzira kumisa kusimba uku.

Musi waKukadzi 28, 2022, Volkswagen, mugadziri wemotokari wekuGermany, akazivisa kuti yakanga yafunga kumisa kugadzirwa mumafekitori maviri emotokari dzemagetsi kwevhiki rose nekuti kupindirwa kwacho kwakakanganisa kuendeswa kwemidziyo. Mugadziri wemotokari afunga kumisa kugadzirwa muZvico fekitori neDresden fekitori. Pakati pezvimwe zvikamu, kutapurirana kwetambo kwakakanganiswa zvakanyanya. Pamusoro pezvo, Kupihwa kweakakosha isingawanzo simbi dzepasi dzinosanganisira neodymium uye dysprosium zvinogona zvakare kukanganiswa. 80% yemotokari dzemagetsi dzinoshandisa simbi mbiri idzi kugadzira magineti echigarire.

Hondo muUkraine inogonawo kukanganisa zvakanyanya kugadzirwa kwepasi rose kwemabhatiri emotokari yemagetsi, nekuti Ukraine ndiyo yechitatu pakukura mugadziri wenickel nealuminium munyika, uye zviwanikwa zviviri izvi zvakakosha pakugadzirwa kwemabhatiri uye zvikamu zvemotokari yemagetsi. Pamusoro pezvo, iyo neon inogadzirwa muUkraine inosvika 70% yeneon inodiwa kune machipisi epasi rose nezvimwe zvinhu, izvo zvatove kushomeka. hurefu hutsva hunoshamisa. Nhamba iyi inogona kungokwira gore rino.

Dambudziko racho richakanganisa kutengeswa kwegoridhe here?

Kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika pakati peUkraine neRussia kwakonzera kushushikana kukuru uye kunetseka mumaindasitiri makuru ekupedzisira. Zvisinei, kana zvasvika pakukanganisa pamutengo wegoridhe, mamiriro acho akasiyana. Russia ndiyo yechitatu pakukura mugadziri wegoridhe pasi rose, uye gore negore goho rinodarika matani mazana matatu nemakumi matatu.

Chirevo chinoratidza kuti kubva svondo rapfuura raFebruary 2022, sezvo vanoisa mari vachitsvaga kusiyanisa mari yavo muzvinhu zvakachengeteka, mutengo wegoridhe wakakwira zvakanyanya. Zvinonzi mutengo wegoridhe wakakwira 0.3% kusvika 1912.40 US madhora paaundi, ukuwo mutengo wegoridhe wekuUS unotarisirwa kukwira 0.2% kusvika 1913.20 US dollars per ounce. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti vatengesi vane tarisiro huru pamusoro pekushanda kwesimbi yakakosha iyi panguva yedambudziko.

Zvinogona kutaurwa kuti inonyanya kukosha kushandiswa kwegoridhe ndeyekugadzira zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi. Iyo conductor inoshanda inoshandiswa mumakonikisheni, relay contacts, switch, welding majoini, waya dzekubatanidza uye mitsetse yekubatanidza. Kana zviri zvekukanganisa chaiko kwedambudziko iri, hazvisi pachena kuti pachava nekukanganisa kwenguva refu. Asi sezvo varimi vari kutsvaga kuendesa mari yavo kune rimwe divi risingarerekeri, Zvinotarisirwa kuti pachave nekukakavadzana kwenguva pfupi, kunyanya pakati pemapato ari kurwisana.

Nekuona kusagadzikana kwakanyanya kwekukonana kwazvino, zvakaoma kufanotaura mafambiro ebudiriro yerare earth metal industry. Tichitarisa nzira yebudiriro iripo, zvinoita sechokwadi kuti hupfumi hwemusika wepasi rose hwakananga mukuderera kwenguva refu mukugadzirwa kwesimbi dzinokosha uye simbi isingawanzo kugadzirwa, uye cheni dzekugovera makiyi nemagetsi zvichakanganiswa munguva pfupi.

Nyika yasvika panguva yakaoma. Mushure meiyo coronavirus (Covid-19) denda muna 2019, apo mamiriro akange achangotanga kugadzikana, vatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika vakatora mukana uyu kutangazve kubatana nezvematongerwo enyika. Kuti vazvidzivirire kubva kumitambo iyi yemagetsi, vagadziri vanoita zvese zvinogoneka kuchengetedza iripo uye kumisa kugadzirwa kwese kunofanirwa.Kana cheka zvibvumirano zvekugovera nemapato anorwa.

Panguva imwe cheteyo, vaongorori vanotarisira kupenya kwetariro. Kunyangwe zvirambidzo zvekupihwa kubva kuRussia neUkraine zvichigona kukunda, kuchine dunhu rakasimba uko vagadziri vari kutsvaga kutsika muChina. Tichifunga nezvekushandiswa kwakanyanya kwesimbi dzinokosha uye zviwanikwa munyika huru iyi yekuEast Asia, zvirambidzo zvinonzwisiswa nevanhu zvinogona kumbomiswa.Vagadziri vekuEurope vanogona kusainazve zvibvumirano zvekugadzira nekugovera. Zvese zvinoenderana nekuti vatungamiri venyika mbiri idzi vanogadzirisa sei gakava iri.

Ab Shaikhmahmud ndiye munyori wezvemukati uye mupepeti weFuture Market Insights, musika wekutsvagisa uye kubvunza musika wekutsvaga kambani inosimbiswa nesomar.