Intando yaseChinaumhlaba ongavamileamanani akhuphuka ngendlela engakaze ibonwe ngemva kokhetho lukaTrump? Umbiko wocwaningo lwe-CITIC Securities ubonisa ukuthi amanani entengoimikhiqizo yomhlaba engavamileziye zaqhubeka nokukhula muva nje, futhi imboni yomhlaba engavamile ingase ingenise uguquko, ibe indawo eshisayo emakethe yamanje ye-A-share. Abanye abatshalizimali abanethemba lokuhle bakholelwa ukuthi amanani angase akhuphuke izikhathi ezingu-10 esikhathini esizayo. Ngabe ukhetho luzoba namuphi umthelela emhlabeni ongavamile wezwe lami?
Ngokuhlangenwe nakho okudlule kanye nezinkulumo zomkhankaso, singakwazi ukwazi ukuthi i-United States izonyusa amanani azo zonke izimpahla ezingenisiwe ngama-20% esikhathini esizayo, futhi izobeka amanani angama-60% e-China.
Asizazi izindlela zokwengeza amanani. Izinyathelo zokulwa ezathathwa izwe lami ngaphambilini kwakuyilezi: ukukhuphula amanani entengo anamandla afanayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunemikhawulo ekuthengisweni komhlaba okungavamile, okuholela ekwenyukeni kwentengo. Umhlaba ongavamile ulingana "namayintshi ayisikhombisa" embonini yokukhiqiza yase-US. Isibonelo, inkampani ye-Musk's Tesla ayikwazi ukwenza ngaphandle kokuhlinzekwa komhlaba okungajwayelekile. Muva nje, imikhiqizo ye-rubidium iye yanda, phakathi kwayoi-praseodymium neodymium oxideinyuke ngo-60,000 yuan ngethani, okuwukunyuka okungaphezu kuka-14%. I-Rubidium iyisici esibalulekile sama-Tesla motors futhi iyisihluthulelo sokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwezimoto nokusebenza. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amarokhethi athuthukiswe nguMusk ngamandla nawo awahlukaniswa nomhlaba ongavamile. Isibonelo, igobolondo le-rocket lidinga ukusebenzisa umhlaba ongavamilei-niobium, okuwumthombo oyivelakancane kakhulu onamathani ayizigidi ezi-4 kuphela eziqiwu ezisebenzisekayo emhlabeni wonke. Kwenzeka ukuthi iMayini ye-Bayan Obo e-Inner Mongolia, izwe lami liyidiphozithi enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni ezingavamile, futhi iqukethe inani elikhulu le-niobium nezinye izinsiza zamaminerali. Uma ukungezwani kwezohwebo kwe-Sino-US kushuba esikhathini esizayo futhi izwe lami liphoqeleka ukuthi liqinise ukuthengiswa komhlaba okungavamile, khona-ke izinkampani zaseMelika ezidinga umhlaba ongavamile zizoba yiziphukuphuku ezinkulu kakhulu.
Okwesibili, njengoba kuba nzima kakhulu ukuthi umhlaba ongavamile ungene emakethe yase-US, ungase ukhuthaze ukuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe kumabhizinisi asekhaya. Lokhu akunzima ukukuqonda. Isibonelo, lapho i-United States imemezela "uMthetho Wokuphepha Kwezinto Eziphilayo" ukuze ukhawule amabhizinisi ezinto eziphilayo zezwe lami, izwe lami lakhulisa ucwaningo lwalo oluzimele nokuthuthukiswa "kobuchwepheshe bezakhi zofuzo ze-Sirt" nobunye ubuchwepheshe, kodwa lafika "i-Beiliyin" nezinye izimpumelelo ngaphambi kwezinkampani zaseMelika.
Ngaphambilini, ososayensi baseHarvard bashicilela kuphela ukuhlolwa kwezilwane ku-"Sayensi" kanye "Nemvelo", okufakazela ukuthi into eyinhloko ye "Beiliyin" ingabuyisela amangqamuzana amagundane abesilisa esimweni esincane, kodwa isifinyelele ibhodlela ocwaningweni ngempilo yomuntu. Ososayensi baseShayina bahlongoze umbono omusha emikhawulweni: ukuhlanganisa ubuchwepheshe be-Sirt nezingxenye ezahlukene zomzimba womuntu, ngaleyo ndlela kuthuthukiswe "i-Beiliyin" yempilo yokuzala yabesilisa, ukufeza umzila ohlanganisa ukugcinwa kwesikhathi eside kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwamandla okuqhuma. Manje le mpumelelo ingeniwe ku-JD.com yezwe lami, i-Tmall nezinye izinkundla. Lapho abathengi baseShayina bekhala ngokuthi "bazizwa benamandla obusha" futhi "banamandla engeziwe emini", abathengi bakwamanye amazwe bakuthola kunzima ukuthinta le mpumelelo yesayensi nezobuchwepheshe. Naphezu kwemingcele yamazwe angaphandle, ubuchwepheshe bezwe lami bokumbiwa phansi kanye nokuncibilikisa buthuthuke baba phambili emhlabeni. Lokhu kuphinde kwaholela esimweni esiyihlazo se-American rare earths: ngenxa yokuntuleka kobuchwepheshe, cishe amaphesenti angama-90 omhlaba ongavamile waseMelika udinga ukuthunyelwa ezweni lami ukuze kucutshungulwe kahle.
Ngesikhathi sokugcina kukaTrump, wenza okuthile okuzizwise ubuhlungu. Ngaleso sikhathi, ama-80% omhlaba ongavamile e-United States kwadingeka angeniswe evela e-China. Ngalesi sizathu, uTrump uhlongoze ukuthi "ahlukane" nezwe lami futhi avumele izwe ukuthi lisungule imboni yomhlaba eyivelakancane.
Thatha izimayini ze-lithium e-United States njengesibonelo. Nakuba izindawo ezigciniwe zezimayini ze-lithium e-United States zifinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-40, kunenkampani eyodwa kuphela ebizwa ngokuthi iSilver Peak enobuchwepheshe bokuncibilikisa nokukhipha, futhi umkhiqizo wonyaka ungamathani angu-5 000 kuphela. Uma uhlelo lukaTrump lulandelwa ngempela, kuzothatha okungenani iminyaka eyizi-8,000 ukuwakhipha. Ngakho-ke, i-United States ithumele inani elikhulu lemihlaba engavamile ezweni lami. Ngo-2019, i-United States yamba amathani angaba ngu-26,000 omhlaba ongavamile, okwathi cishe amathani angama-24,000 athunyelwa ezweni lami, yabe isichitha inani eliphakeme ukuthenga leyo ecolisisiwe.imihlaba engavamile. Isizathu salesi simo ukuthi izwe lami selithuthukise ubuchwepheshe bezokukhiqiza kanye nezimboni, futhi i-United States yamanje kusobala ukuthi isemuva kakhulu. Ochwepheshe baseMelika abasengozini baphinde baveza ukuthi cishe akunakwenzeka ukuthi i-United States isungule uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngamaminerali okwanele. Ngenxa yokuthi izindleko zabasebenzi bokuqeqesha ziphezulu, umkhawulo wezobuchwepheshe wokumbiwa kwezimayini nokucubungula nawo uphezulu, futhi ukunikezwa komfula kanye nokwehla komfula kuncike kakhulu emazweni aseNtshonalanga. Okwenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu e-United States, imibiko yezindaba yango-November 4 yathi izindawo zokumba izimayini zomhlaba eziyivelakancane eMyanmar zivaliwe, futhi imithombo yomhlaba eyivelakancane izoba yindlala nakakhulu.
Ukuze kuncishiswe ukuncika emhlabeni ongandile wezwe lami, uTrump wabuye waveza ukuthi uzothembela kuwoyela waseMelika ukuthuthukisa izimoto zikaphethiloli, kwathi ngesikhathi somkhankaso wathi uzowuqeda umgomo wokuxhasa izimoto zaseMelika ezisebenza ngogesi. Imihlaba engavamile ingase ibe isizathu sokuthi kungani engayisekeli imboni yezimoto zikagesi futhi ekhetha izimoto ezivamile zikaphethiloli. U-Musk, omsekela ngemuva kwezigcawu, futhi ubeke umbono oqondile: ememezela ukuthi ubuchwepheshe bezimoto zesizukulwane esilandelayo sikaTesla buzozilahla ngokuphelele izinto zomhlaba ezingavamile. Kodwa ngokombono, umhlaba ongavamile useyinto edingekayo yezimoto zikagesi. Sekuphele cishe iminyaka emibili uMusk “ependa uphaya”, futhi akubanga khona izindaba mayelana nenqubekelaphambili yocwaningo lwale moto. Uma umhlaba ongavamile usewumthombo obalulekile wamasu esikhathini esizayo, futhi i-US iphikelela ukuthi ihambe ngendlela yayo, khona-ke uMusk angase aqhubeke nokulalela uTrump futhi akhiqize izimoto zikaphethiloli.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-11-2024